World powers meet in Paris on Thursday aiming to provide urgent humanitarian aid to Lebanon, support to its security forces and push for a ceasefire, but with the U.S. focused on its own efforts, diplomats said they expect little concrete progress.
France has historical ties with Lebanon and has been working with Washington in trying to secure a ceasefire. But its influence has been limited since Israel launched a large-scale onslaught on Lebanon in September that has seen thousands displaced and more than 2,000 people killed.
Paris hastily arranged the conference as a means to show it still has clout in its former protectorate, but while 70 delegations and 15 international organisations are represented, few major ministers are attending.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken opted to go on a last ditch tour of the Middle East before next month’s election and will skip the Paris meeting despite being in London on Friday, instead sending a deputy in his place.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, whose country has been reluctant to engage in Lebanon, will also not be present.
According to a framework document sent to delegations, the conference aims to reiterate the need to cease hostilities on the basis of the 2006 U.N. Security Council resolution 1701, which calls for southern Lebanon to be free of any troops or weapons other than those of the Lebanese state.
It also wants to mobilise the international community to primarily help the 500,000-1 million displaced. Lebanon says it needs $250 million a month to deal with the crisis.
It will also seek to ramp up support for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), deemed as the guarantor of internal stability, but also vital to implementing 1701.
That centres around ensuring salaries are paid, food and medical supplies provided and equipment and training given with a view to the LAF increasing its numbers and eventually deploying south, officials said.
“It is important that we are able to progress and bring concrete responses,” a French presidential official told reporters ahead of the conference.
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati and key ministers involved in relief efforts will come, but neither Israel, whose Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticised the initiative, nor Iran were invited.
Questions over French-US cooperation
Paris is also pushing Lebanese actors — despite reluctance from some — to help by moving forward on the election of a president to fill a two-year power vacuum before a ceasefire.
Quite what can be achieved on the political front is unclear, diplomats said, although France touts its direct contacts with Hezbollah and Iran as a crucial advantage compared to U.S. mediation efforts.
Coordination between Paris and Washington is delicate.
The U.S. special envoy Amos Rothstein was in Beirut on Monday saying that the U.S. was working on a formula to end the war for good, and suggested that merely committing to a previous U.N. resolution would not be enough.
He made no mention of Paris, although he met President Emmanuel Macron’s diplomatic adviser on Wednesday.
“France wants a ceasefire and believes that Hezbollah will not be eliminated. It does not want to lose what it has invested in this relationship,” said a Middle East diplomat. “The U.S. wants the destruction of Hezbollah and is encouraging the Israelis to go further.”
European officials have been critical that Washington is not calling for an immediate ceasefire and fear the administration will not alter that position before the election on Nov. 5. “It is unclear what the French are trying to achieve with this (conference),’ said a Western diplomat. “The French are furious with the U.S. about allowing Israeli operations to continue and the U.S. wants to keep the French at arm’s length.”
(Reuters)